Weather

My goal in this column is to bring the art and science of forecasting to pilots. This is because forecasts arent perfect and still wont be in the foreseeable future. This is not an indictment of the profession, but an acknowledgement of the realities of the forecast problem. For example, a single balloon launch is used to represent the 400,000 cubic miles of troposphere over Arkansas, and only happens every 12 hours. This is why good forecasters are skeptical of models and blend them with experience, intuition, and their own analysis before making a forecast.

As a pilot you most certainly know that just about everything in aviation has a checklist. We controllers have our own checklists for a multitude of hazardous situations, unauthorized laser illumination included. I pulled up the appropriate checklist while the helo maneuvered.

Recently, a friend who flies out of Houston Hobby (KHOU) shared something thats bothered him for some time. Just seven miles east of Hobby is Ellington Field (KEFD), a joint-use military/civilian airport. Both airports issue TAFs. Hobbys TAFs come from the NWS and Ellingtons are issued by the military. Interestingly, sometimes there is a great disparity between the forecasts. Do they each have their own biases? Are they looking through different glasses? Its like asking two witnesses what they see in an accident that hasnt happened yet.

Winds aloft charts have long been a staple of flight planning, if at least just to figure wind correction angles and groundspeed. But in Wx Smarts, we try to help you more fully exploit weather products to think more like a forecaster than a person just checking off boxes during preflight.

For the moment, well begin with a nickel tour of both the ATC and the national aviation weather systems. Naturally, theres some overlap between them. The FAA air traffic control system is one big ol network. The chain of command begins with the ATC System Command Center in Virginia, which provides oversight and coordination between the biggest ATC facilities, the Air Route Traffic Control Centers.

For those of us flying IFR in locations with a high probability of a white Christmas each year, we often need to recalibrate our aeronautical mindset from summer. We have to switch our weather default from Where are the thunderstorms? to Where is the ice? Winter brings us more challenging preflights, engine starts and airport operations. Even though we are all experienced instrument pilots, its still worth taking a few minutes to think about cold weather operations as we head into the worst of the season.

Lockheed Martin's Flight Service Stations are still open, but the services for pre-flight briefing and cockpit assistance are dwindling fast. The FSS now pushes for more pilot self-assistance as it is gradually being replaced by digital applications.

The National Transportation Safety Board archives reveal some serious considerations for general aviation pilots who venture out into ANY unfamiliar condition. Lets examine a couple of noteworthy accidents using some of the highest caliber weather products available to meteorologists. Using these tools, well try to figure out where things went wrong. Unfortunately, todays tools and the expertise behind them werent available to the pilots involved in the accidents. But we can use this knowledge to find lessons that can be learned for pilots who might someday find themselves immersed in similar predicaments.

METARs and TAFs have long been the mainstays of aviation weather. Youve probably got a handy decoding guide on your desk or bookmarked in your web browser, so we wont focus on that. However well fill you in with background information-ranging from trivia to amuse other pilots on a long haul, to important tidbits that will provide insight and some options in rough weather.

10 m wind corresponds exactly to the wind as would be observed. The model data also offers gust strength and maximum wind for the hour.

In Wx Smarts we focus on outsmarting the weather through heightened weather-situational awareness. Yet, in my three years here, I havent discussed forecast models. Its time.Models dont yet belong in the cockpit, but they can be valuable for planning and understanding whats going through the minds of the forecasters. Plus, models are useful for long-range outlooks.

If you think summer weather in the southeastern states means sunshine and VFR, you probably havent experienced one of the numerous warm-season ground stops on traffic going to Atlanta. Granted this part of the country gets plenty of blue sky, but its also when the region gets the bulk of its precipitation. Furthermore some readers might have noticed weather charts almost never show fronts in this area during the summer. So how can we truly get a handle on what to expect?Most of the time when youre dealing with preflight weather briefings and TAFs, you only see half the picture: the final forecast. Very few pilots actually get to see the thinking that goes into the predictions. Its my job to give you that.